THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, AUGUST 15
NFL PRESEASON
Atlanta at Detroit
The top two quarterbacks taken in the past two NFL drafts meet at Ford Field, with Lions rookie Matthew Stafford seeing his first pro action against the Falcons and reigning Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan.
Ryan, whose first NFL throw in regular-season action last year was a touchdown pass against Detroit, will start tonight and may play the entire first quarter. Coach Mike Smith said his other three passers – Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley and rookie John Parker Wilson – will also play one quarter.
Stafford will have to wait a bit to make his NFL debut, as new Lions coach Jim Schwartz said that veteran Daunte Culpepper will start under center and play into the second quarter before giving way to Stafford. Third-string QB Drew Stanton will finish up.
The Falcons covered in three of four preseason contests in Smith’s first season at the helm last year (2-2 SU), including going 2-0 ATS on the road. Atlanta hasn’t had a losing preseason in any of the last four summers, going 11-6 SU and 11-5-1 ATS. Also, the Falcons have been a very profitable ‘dog during this stretch, going 8-2 ATS.
The Lions’ 2008 preseason was as successful as their regular season was not, as they preceded their record 0-16 campaign with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark in exhibition play. Detroit started off by winning its third consecutive preseason opener – 13-10 over the Giants as a 2½-point home chalk – and finished with three convincing victories over the Bengals (27-10), Browns (26-6) and Bills (14-6). Then the Lions began their winless regular season with a 34-21 loss at Atlanta as a 3½-point road favorite.
Prior to cashing in both games as a favorite last summer, the Lions had failed to cover in five straight August contests as a chalk.
The under is 5-2 in the Falcons’ last seven preseason contests, 4-1 in Detroit’s last five in the summer and 6-3 in the last nine overall meetings between these clubs (1-1 in the preseason).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Chicago at Buffalo (0-1, 0-0-1 ATS)
The Jay Cutler era commences for the Bears, who travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to battle the Bills.
Cutler, who was traded from Denver in the offseason, will start tonight but is only expected to participate for about 15 snaps, while the rest of the first-stringers on both sides of the ball are slated to play into the second quarter. Behind Cutler are inexperienced passers Caleb Hanie and Brett Basanez.
Trent Edwards, who went 3-for-4 for 13 yards and an INT in Sunday’s 21-18 loss to the Titans in the Hall of Fame Game, is expected to play about as much as last week and maybe “a few more plays” coach Dick Jauron said. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the No. 2 quarterback, followed by Matt Baker and Gibran Hamdan. Newly acquired WR Terrell Owens (injury) will sit out.
The Bears are 11-10 SU and 9-11-1 ATS in five preseasons for coach Lovie Smith, including 1-3 SU and ATS last year. However, Chicago has won and covered three of its last four exhibition roadies and is 6-3 ATS as a preseason pup under Smith.
The Bills, who fell behind 21-3 to Tennessee on Sunday, got a miracle spread-push as a three-point underdog when the Titans took an intentional safety on the final play of the game. Since Jauron took over as coach in 2005, Buffalo is 0-5 SU and ATS in preseason home games, all as a favorite. In fact, the Bills are 1-7 ATS as a favorite since 2005.
Although the Hall of Fame Game flew over the total, the under is still 7-3 in Buffalo’s last 10 preseason contests. Conversely, Chicago has topped the posted total in its first three exhibition games each of the last two years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tampa Bay at Tennessee (1-0, 0-0-1 ATS)
The Bucs and new coach Raheem Morris travel north to LP Field for their preseason opener against the Titans.
Tampa Bay remains unsettled at the quarterback position, but Morris has tabbed veteran Luke McCown as the starter tonight. McCown will be on the field for 12-15 plays, and Morris said the plan is the same for newcomer Byron Leftwich, who will follow McCown. Rookie Josh Freeman will start the second half with second-year pro Josh Johnson also playing down the stretch.
Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher said QB Kerry Collins, who led Tennessee to two touchdown drives in last week’s 21-18 victory over Buffalo in the Hall of Fame Game, and the rest of the starters will likely play one more series than they did against the Bills. Vince Young, who was shaky in Sunday’s contest, will once again replace Collins and play through the third quarter with the second-string. Veteran Patrick Ramsey will be the third quarterback off the bench, with rookie Alex Mortensen possibly finishing the contest.
The Buccaneers went 3-1 SU and ATS in each of the past two preseasons under former coach Jon Gruden. Last year, Tampa Bay scored upsets in each of its two exhibition road games, and it has won seven consecutive preseason openers, going 7-0 ATS.
The Titans are now on a 7-2 roll in preseason play since 2007, but just 4-4-1 ATS. Tennessee swept its two preseason home contests in 2008, but is just 2-6 ATS at LP Field in August dating to 2005 and 2-7-1 ATS as an exhibition chalk during this stretch.
The over is 5-2 in Tampa’s last seven exhibition games and 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Houston at Kansas City
The Texans will try to open the preseason with a victory for the third time in the last four years when they trek to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the new-look Chiefs.
Houston coach Gary Kubiak announced that his starters, including QB Matt Schaub, will be on the field for 12-15 snaps in the first quarter. The second-string, led by veteran QB Dan Orlovsky, will play through the third quarter, with former Bears starting quarterback Rex Grossman guiding the third-team for the duration of the game.
New chiefs coach Todd Haley suggested that his starters, including new No. 1 quarterback Matt Cassel, could play 1½ quarters. Brodie Croyle is battling with Tyler Thigpen for the No. 2 spot, while Matt Gutierrez is fourth on the depth chart.
The Texans went 2-2 SU each of the last two summers (4-3-1 ATS) and they’re 7-5 SU and 7-3-2 ATS since Kubiak took over in 2006, going 5-1 ATS on the road, all as an underdog. They’re also 2-1 SU (1-1-1 ATS) in Week 1 under Kubiak.
The Chiefs split their four preseason contests last year (1-3 ATS), but have otherwise had little success in August in recent years, going 5-15 SU and 4-16 ATS since 2004. During this five-year stretch, Kansas City is 3-7 ATS at home, 2-7 ATS as a chalk and 1-4 ATS in preseason openers.
Kansas City topped the total in three of four summer games last year, and the over is 3-0 in its last three preseason home games. Also, the over is 7-1 for Houston over the last two exhibition campaigns.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and OVER
Cleveland at Green Bay
New coach Eric Mangini takes the field with the Browns for the first time as they invade Lambeau Field for a clash with the Packers.
Mangini this week listed Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn as co-starting quarterbacks, meaning he’s not close to deciding whom he’ll put under center when the regular season begins. And while he told both passers on Friday who would start and how long each would play, he did not make that information public. Both figure to see significant action, with third-stringer Brett Ratliff moping up.
Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy wasn’t forthcoming on his plans for this contest, but expect Aaron Rodgers, beginning his second season in charge of the Packers’ offense, to start and play a handful of series Rodgers is backed up by second-year pros Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm.
The Browns went winless in the preseason last year (0-4 SU and ATS) after going 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS the previous four summers, including 6-2 SU and ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS as an underdog. On the bright side, Mangini won eight of his 12 preseason contests as coach of the Jets from 2006-08, going 4-1 ATS on the road.
The Packers haven’t had a winning August since 2002, and they’re 4-8 (5-7 ATS) in three years under McCarthy. Last year, Green Bay lost both of its preseason home games and it has split the cash in its two Lambeau contests each of the last five preseasons.
The over is 9-3 for Green Bay in the preseason under McCarthy (5-1 at home). However, the under is 6-3 in Cleveland’s last nine August outings (3-1 on the road).
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Seattle at San Diego
The Jim Mora era commences at Qualcomm Stadium as the coach guides the Seahawks against the Chargers.
Mora wasn’t specific about playing time for this contest, but did hint that veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck would only be on the field for a series or two. Veteran backup Seneca Wallace will take over for Hasselbeck and see time with the first-team offensive line. Jeff Rowe and rookie Mike Teel, who are battling for the No. 3 spot, will likely split time in the second half.
San Diego coach Norv Turner refused to specify exactly how much action his starters will get against Seattle, but did say he informed his players to be prepared to play a full half. If past history is any indication, No. 1 quarterback Philip Rivers will start and play two to three series before giving way to veteran backup Billy Volek for the rest of the half, followed by third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst. One potentially big change for San Diego: RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who hasn’t made a preseason appearance since 2005, said he’s “95 percent” certain he’ll be on the field – if only briefly – tonight.
Mora takes over for legendary coach Mike Holmgren, who finished his tenure in Seattle with two strong preseasons, going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS, including six consecutive spread-covers going back to Week 3 in 2007. Since 2004, the Seahawks are 13-7 SU and ATS overall in August, 7-3 (8-2 ATS) as a visitor, 7-2 ATS when catching points and 5-1 SU and ATS in Week 1.
The Chargers went 3-1 SU in Turner’s first two preseasons, and last year they cashed in three of four exhibition contests after going 2-2 ATS each of the previous five years. San Diego has also won seven of its last eight preseason home games (5-3 ATS).
These teams have met in August each of the last three years, with the Chargers winning twice and Seattle going 2-1 ATS. In fact, since 2002, the Seahawks are on a 6-1 roll versus San Diego, including two regular-season games.
The over is 9-2 in Seattle’s last 11 preseason contests and 13-5 in the last 18. The over is also 7-3 for San Diego in preseason action since 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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